In the useful book ‘Political Risk’ by Condoleezza Rice and Amy Zegart it says on page 93: “The first step toward good political risk management is being brutally honest about the political risks your business confronts. Understanding risks requires overcoming blind spots.”
A few days before Assad had to leave Syria for Moscow and various militias and terrorist groups had gained control of Damascus, I bought myself the usual end-of-year magazine – currently for €17.50! – “The World Ahead 2025” from The Economist.
The assessment of Syria can now be confidently labelled as completely misguided, wrong and whatever else. The question can be asked on what data basis this assessment was made in the first place. The rapid erosion of the Syrian regime came as a surprise to most actors and observers – except those involved of course…. In this respect, the time-honoured Economist cannot be blamed for this. Perhaps a note should be added for individual states infuture outlooks: “Caution: it could suddenly turn out completely differently!”
The various governments that are now hastily thinking about rebuilding Syria, reopening their embassies and looking for future business options will hopefully also be ‘brutally honest’ with themselves, as demanded in the above-mentioned book. I wish the Syrian people that everything will turn out well. And I hope that this opportunity will be utilised: That the weakness of some actors like Iran and its enforcers will be used to put an end to their machinations.
And I want my €17.50 back.
